Obstacles seen for de blasio’s preschools plan

Mr. de Blasio has portrayed the proposal as a fast-acting antidote to inequality, and he has won endorsements from prominent experts in education and poverty. But his plan would most likely face several obstacles if he were elected.

As mayor, Mr. de Blasio would have to win approval from state leaders for the tax increase on those earning more than $500,000 — an arduous feat, at least at the outset, since lawmakers and the governor will face re-election in 2014.

On Wednesday, Mr. de Blasio’s aides said he would seek a slightly larger tax increase than he had originally indicated, after The New York Times questioned whether his earlier proposal would raise enough money for his goals.

Mr. de Blasio would also have to persuade large numbers of low-income families to sign up for extracurricular programs, something the city has struggled with for years. And he would have to remake the city’s patchwork of early childhood and tutoring services, which vary in quality and have limits on growth.

Taken together, the challenges facing Mr. de Blasio, currently the public advocate, may make it difficult to achieve a speedy transformation of the school system, political and educational experts said.

“To go from where you are to excellent will take 10 years,” said W. Steven Barnett, director of the National Institute for Early Education Research, who praised Mr. de Blasio’s proposal.

Mr. de Blasio, a Democrat, said that he was looking to make a lasting change to the city’s educational and economic ladder, and that he believed the idea had broad public support. “This is a prerequisite today to the kind of education that can succeed in the modern economy,” he said.

On the campaign trail, Mr. de Blasio has used the proposal to set himself apart from his opponents, who have mostly resisted the idea of raising taxes. He often describes New York as a “tale of two cities,” and he has said that prekindergarten and after-school programs are essential to help less-affluent residents thrive.

As Mr. de Blasio’s popularity in the polls has risen, his rivals have attacked the tax proposal, calling it irresponsible and unrealistic. At a debate last week, William C. Thompson Jr., a former city comptroller and a Democratic candidate for mayor, dismissed the plan as a “tax in search of an idea.”

Mr. de Blasio is calling for raising the city’s tax rate to 4.4 percent, from 3.87 percent, on income over $500,000, a difference of $530 for every $100,000 above that threshold. The increase is expected to raise about $530 million per year for the city, with $340 million to be spent on prekindergarten classes, and $190 million on after-school programs for middle school students. Until Wednesday, he had called for an increase to 4.3 percent, or $430 for every $100,000.

After The Times asked questions about whether the proposal would raise enough money, Mr. de Blasio’s staff amended it. The Independent Budget Office, which provided the original calculations, attributed the discrepancy to a miscommunication.

As mayor, Mr. de Blasio would have to gain approval in Albany, where the plan is likely to encounter stiff opposition from Republicans, who, joined by several breakaway Democrats, control the State Senate.

Conservative lawmakers and business leaders are already scoffing at the proposal.

“New York City already has some of the highest taxes in the nation,” said Scott Reif, a spokesman for Senate Republicans. “Raising taxes is not the answer.”

In the past, mayors including David N. Dinkins, Rudolph W. Giuliani and Michael R. Bloomberg have overcome resistance in Albany and won income tax increases. Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo, a Democrat, has generally opposed tax increases during his tenure, and he declined through a spokesman to comment on Mr. de Blasio’s plan.

William B. Eimicke, a Columbia University professor who has served in city and state government, said Mr. de Blasio would face long odds in the state capital, unless he were to win the mayoralty by a wide margin. “The chances aren’t really bright,” he said. “It will undermine his position, saying he speaks for the city, when a lot of people in the city will be lobbying in the other direction.”